Pep Guardiola's record-low possession against Arsenal highlights a Premier League style shift - Between the Lines

Pep Guardiola faced accusations of parking the bus in Manchester City's 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Sunday.

City's 33.2 per cent share of possession was the lowest from a Guardiola team in his entire top-flight career in management. There was even the uncharacteristic sight of him switching to a back five in the second half as City tried to grind out the win.

Guardiola put it down to the quality of their opponent, saying Arsenal forced them to go on the defensive. But did it also say something about how their style is changing?

Between the Lines, a new Sky Sports strand breaking down the data behind football's biggest stories, returns with a look at City's tactical evolution and the Premier League's shift towards directness.

• Download the Sky Sports app for expert analysis, video & more
• No Sky? Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract on NOW?

How Pep is adapting his principles

Sunday's game was an extreme example but it was not the first this season in which City have had a lower share of possession than their opponent. In fact, following last weekend's win over Manchester United, in which City had 45.3 per cent of the ball, it has happened as many times in five games as in the whole of last term.

City's possession leapt over the 70 per cent-mark following Guardiola's appointment in 2016 but this season's average of 52 per cent represents a significant drop from previous levels as he puts more emphasis on direct play and counters, typified by Erling Haaland's blistering opener at the Emirates Stadium.

Haaland is thriving with more counter-attacking opportunities. He has scored a goal from a fast break in each of City's last three Premier League games, against Wolves and Manchester United as well as Arsenal. He is already up to seven goals in all competitions.

In addition to recording more than twice as many fast breaks per game as last season, City are making more long passes and winning more aerial duels. It is still a relatively small sample size, five games in, but there has been a notable dip in their numbers for build-up attacks and passing sequences at the same time.

Their numbers for high turnovers have also dropped dramatically, suggesting they are less committed to pressing high up the pitch as well as building up from the back with short passes.

"For the last six, seven, eight years, we've just seen them dominate possession," said Sky Sports' Gary Neville. "When they were at their absolute best, you knew they'd be 1-0 up but they'd have 70, 80 per cent of the ball and the other team would be chasing shadows.

"This is a completely different Manchester City; it's a complete turnaround. It's a 180 to see him do that in the final parts of the game. There are a lot of questions asked of managers. Do they adapt? Are they agile enough to change things in games?

"Guardiola never really changed his way of playing before. It was almost as if to say everyone has to adapt to what I'm doing, and everybody copied him for years and years, playing out from the back, but he's moved on beyond that now. They are certainly a lot more physical, a lot more direct, and less football than they used to be."

The adjustments are linked to the rising physical intensity of the Premier League and its players, something Guardiola said contributed to his decision to start using centre-backs at full-back during City's treble-winning campaign. But they are also tied to personnel, with City having undergone a rebuild over the last year.

Guardiola is trying to play to the strengths of new signings such as Tijjani Reijnders. Like Haaland, whose goal he set up on Sunday, the Dutch international carries a huge threat in transition.

There has been an even more significant change in goal, where Ederson has made way for Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Ederson's outstanding long passing ability became a dangerous weapon for City but he mostly played the ball short. Donnarumma is different. Against Arsenal on Sunday, he sent 21 of his 27 passes long having sent 19 out of 30 long in City's previous Premier League game against Manchester United.

City's display on Sunday showed a greater willingness to defend but, from back to front, the way they attack is changing too.

Is Pep inspiring change... again?

Recent history tells us that when Guardiola adapts his style, other managers usually follow. Sure enough, the changes to City's approach are being mirrored up and down the Premier League.

Or, at least, most of them are. Interestingly, fast breaks are actually down from last season according to Opta's advanced metrics. But the data mostly corresponds with City's otherwise, depicting an overall shift towards a more direct style of play.

Build-up attacks, passing sequences, and high turnovers are all down from last season as a growing number of sides embrace more direct passing, mostly aimed towards out-and-out No 9s, who have come roaring back into fashion, as a route to goal.

City have Haaland but other clubs sought to bring in their own versions at considerable expense this summer, among them Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres, Newcastle's Nick Woltemade, Liverpool's Alexander Isak and Manchester United's Benjamin Sesko.

Expect Guardiola to continue leading the evolution.

He transformed English football with the introduction of his possession-based playing style following his appointment at City as playing out from the back became ubiquitous. Nine years on, it seems he is changing the game again.

Which other sides' styles have changed?

Nottingham Forest have undergone a stylistic transformation comparable to Manchester City's evolution under new head coach Ange Postecoglou.

Last season, Forest ranked at or near the bottom across a range of pressing and possession-based metrics. However, they have surged into the elite for those same stats under the Australian.

West Ham's waning press could be contributing to the pressure ramping up on Graham Potter, while Brentford's style appears to be akin to Forest's approach under Nuno Espirito Santo. Meanwhile, Bournemouth's style is almost identical to last season.

• How Ange Postecoglou has already transformed Nottingham Forest - but will it work?

Manchester United are among numerous teams that appear to be pressing less high up the pitch but switching to a more direct style, attempting more long balls and winning more headers instead.

You can use the interactive radar below to select a team and see how their playing style this season compares with last campaign...

Read last week's Between the Lines

Is Ruben Amorim's system doomed to fail at Manchester United? We looked at why his 3-4-2-1 set-up is not working and revealed data showing how formations have evolved in the Premier League.

(c) Sky Sports 2025: Pep Guardiola's record-low possession against Arsenal highlights a Premier League style shift - Between the Lines